speculate

Etymology

The OED and the Shorter Oxford take it as borrowed from Latin speculātus (“watched, examined”), the past participle of speculor (“to spy out, watch, examine, observe”),^[2][3][4][5] while Etymonline and Barnhart see in it a back-formation from English speculation, which Barnhart says was modelled on the Latin participle.^[6][7] The Latin verb is from specula (“look-out, watchtower”),^[2][8][4][7] from speciō (“to see, look at”),^[2][8][7] from Proto-Indo-European *spek- (“to observe”).^[8][6] The OED compares speculare, especular, especuler and spéculer.^[2] Caxton had used specule, regard attentively, from the French verb, but it did not last.^[6]

Earliest recorded meaning

To consider or reflect on something closely; to contemplate or theorize about it: 1599, in Sir Edwin Sandys's Europae Speculum.^[2][7][4] Etymonline dates it to the 1590s.^[6]

Semantic evolution

The first senses were transitive: to view something with the mind (1599) and to look at or observe something closely, especially the stars (from 1616).^[2][6] From the 1670s the verb was used intransitively of reasoning by conjecture or theory,^[2][6][7] and Johnson (1755) defined it as "to meditate; to contemplate".^[9] The commercial sense, buying and selling in the hope of profiting from a rise or fall in prices, is first recorded in 1785, in the correspondence of Thomas Jefferson,^[2][7][6] and is followed by the sense of investing money in a risky enterprise (1907).^[2] The phrase speculate to accumulate, to take risks for long-term gain, is recorded from 1902, in an Adelaide newspaper.^[2] In New Zealand rugby it is a forward kick of the ball made in an emergency without careful aim.^[10]

Timeline

• 1599 – to consider, contemplate, theorize upon.^[2][7][4]
• 1616 – to look at or examine closely (now rare or obsolete).^[2][3]
• 1630 – to observe the stars or heavens.^[2]
• before 1677 – to reflect or conjecture on a subject.^[2][7]
• 1755 – Johnson defines the verb as to meditate, contemplate.^[9]
• 1785 – to buy and sell in order to profit from changes in market value.^[2][7][6]
• 1902 – speculate to accumulate.^[2]
• 1907 – to invest money in a risky venture.^[2]

Meanings

Verb

1. To form an opinion or theory without full knowledge of the facts; to conjecture: Reporters speculated about the minister's next move.^[10][3][4]
2. To think about a subject from different sides; to reflect or theorize, usually without testing by experiment.^[4][2]
3. To buy or sell securities, land or goods in the hope of profiting from a change in their price: He speculated in mining shares.^[10][2]
4. To take a risk of loss for the chance of considerable gain.^[10][2]
5. (New Zealand, rugby) To kick the ball forward in an emergency without taking aim.^[10]
6. (archaic) To consider attentively; to reflect upon.^[4][9]
7. (obsolete) To look at or examine closely.^[2][3]

Word family

• speculator

Related words

• species
• spectacle
• spectacular
• speculation
• speculative
• spy
• speculum

References

1. ^ a b Wiktionary, the free dictionary, https://en.wiktionary.org
2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Oxford English Dictionary Online (accessed March 2026), Oxford: Oxford University Press
3. ^ a b c d Shorter Oxford English Dictionary on Historical Principles (2002), 5th ed., ed. William R. Trumble and Angus Stevenson, Oxford: Oxford University Press
4. ^ a b c d e f g Merriam-Webster Unabridged Dictionary (2024), online ed., Springfield, Mass.: Merriam-Webster
5. ^ Klein, Ernest. A Comprehensive Etymological Dictionary of the English Language. 2 vols. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1966–1967.
6. ^ a b c d e f g h Harper, Douglas. Online Etymology Dictionary, https://www.etymonline.com
7. ^ a b c d e f g h i Barnhart, Robert K. (1988), The Barnhart Dictionary of Etymology
8. ^ a b c The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language (online 2024), 5th ed., Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
9. ^ a b c Johnson, Samuel (1755), A Dictionary of the English Language, London; 4th ed. 1773; Johnson's Dictionary Online, ed. Beth Rapp Young et al.
10. ^ a b c d e Collins English Dictionary (2023), Glasgow: HarperCollins